Developer Economics 2011 released

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A quick plug for one of my work based projects I'm most proud of. Like any good marketer I spend a lot of time understanding the market and what my prospective customers want and need. Historically this investment in insight was proprietary and used solely internally. I had a "light bulb" moment about two and a half years ago and thought why don't we effectively open source our market research and share the same data we use internally with anyone that wants it. Next step was to find the right partner, and I have had a blast working with Andreas Constantinou and the team at Vision Mobile ever since. The 2010 edition of the report received wide spread praise and achieved over 10,000 downloads. I'm confident that 2011's edition is bigger, and better. We have doubled the number of respondents, and for the first time we have interviewed over 20 leading brands to understand their attitudes and apps strategies. You can listen to Andreas and I discussing the report here: Introducing Developer Economics 2011 from BlueVia on Vimeo. To download your free copy visit www.developereconomics.com Enjoy! edit: thanks to @adamcohenrose for pointing out the download link was broken! Now fixed

WIP Jam @ OSiM 2010 Write Up

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So today I attended the second day of the snappily titled Open Software in Mobile World conference, or OSiM to its friends. It claims to be the world’s largest open mobile software gathering with 85 speakers and 400 attendees, 2010 being its 5th year of operation. Well, they struggled big time to fill the event. Today was very sparse and talking to a few people, day one was not much better. I had a quick head count and there were around 25 people in the room for the first session of the day. I guess there will be some post show soul searching, as it seems they struggled to attract sponsors as well. Only the “Bronze” spot showing as filled on the website (Texas Instruments & ST Ericsson) It will be interesting to see if there is any commentary on that.
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I caught Alberto Ciarniello presenting in the main track first thing in the morning. Alberto is Telecom Italia’s Head of technical marketing mobile broadband & VAS.
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Alberto spoke on the topic of “The Open App Store”. He presented three key market trends:
  • The App Market place - Apps going main stream – with consumers seeing them as a better way to deliver mobile and fixed services.
  • Social Media – 500m Facebook users, powerful contextual and social enablers. Apparently according to Alberto, Italians spend the highest number of minutes per day on Facebook than anyone else in the world (no figure given though)
  • Communication trends – social networking marketing, mobile ads, virtual mall, contextual web, telco 2.0
We then got some data on the Italian market: There has been a x10 volume increase in smart phones in a stagnant device market driven by choice & reducing prices. By the end of 2010 there will be 4.3 million smartphones, growing to 9 million by the end of 2013, compared to 17.8 million features phone by end 2010, and 13.1 million by end of 2013. He made an interesting comment – customers are now used to apps, and are beginning to de-value “open” web access “I don’t really need the web, I’m just using Facebook”, which supports the recent Chris Anderson Wired article “The web is dead” Alberto pointed out the classic Operator dilemma; how do we turn this opportunity into a mass market game, by ensuring Telecom Italia deliver compelling services for the 68% of the Italian population that will not be carrying Smartphones in 2013? Many (including myself) would challenge this as old school thinking, and say why worry? That 68% represents the late adopters. Invest in the 30% where the usage and the money is at. The late adopters / laggards will eventually catch up, and they will catch up without the Operators having to spend money marketing to them. Adoption is mainly driven by family and peer influencers, reference grandparents texting and joining Facebook to see the photo’s of the grand kids. Although a little old now (July 2009) this post on Mashable powerfully illustrates it is the over 55’s joining Facebook in their droves – this has happened without Facebook marketing to them (or to anyone for that matter), and newer data confirms the trend is continuing with social networking usage growing by 88% amongst the 55 – 64 age group, and 100% for the over 65’s between April 2009 – May 2010. Alberto made the point that the rise of Smartphone drives complexity and increases the cost to serve, the challenge being on how to turn that into a profitable business. He also made the case for the Operator to provide the role of unifying services, providing trust via brand equity and opening revenue streams for the other players in the value chain. He claimed customers; expect services to work on any device, demand convenience, security, and tight integration with other Telco services. Closing, he made a good point that the developer and app store trend has brought tremendous value to the Telco world, however the ecosystem has to provide economic viability for all players, and that open is great, but there has to be some roadmap planning to allow full exploitation of new innovation. The value of the open initiatives is also measurable in the way we drive them. We need predictable roadmaps to maximise opportunities
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After ducking out of the main track to jump on a conference call I couldn’t avoid, I headed over to hang out with Caroline and Thibaut for the WIP Jam. Having seen the turn out for the main session, I was worried we would have no one to jam with, but they turned up.
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The WIP Jam crew did a great job of injecting some much needed energy and fun into the day, which was getting hard going to say the least. My notes from the “un-panel” which comprised of First interesting point was “We hear web web web, but the reality is more and more native apps” It seems many are doing a little of both and mixing both worlds. John described how mobile web development can provide some benefits; removing the headache of figuring out which platforms to support., and quicker and cheaper to implement cross platform solutions – much more reusable, especially around UI. Alex agreed web technologies have sped up UI (3rd of project time), but gave a Korean insight – brands want pixel perfect UI’s. Customers like banks want to specify the UI, and web environments do not provide that accuracy. Blending of native with the cloud was becoming increasingly common. Ben described how their apps take a meta data framework from their servers, and they also do a lot of public data screen scraping for analytical purposes. A few example were given of native apps that have a client / server relationship, but there was the caution around planning for the situations when the client has no network connection, and to be aware of network latency issues slowing down the user experience of your app with the associated risk of putting off your customers. The conversation moved onto planning techniques. The summary of that seemed to be a desire to adopt agile methodologies, but the reality for many is they are still operating in organised chaos. Ben gave examples of the struggle to manage high level objectives and low level tasks. Alex said they had cherry picked elements of agile they like e.g. Scrum, and also had the luxury of hand picking their developers. He made the point that many of them are “rock stars” so there are only so many “processes” you can get them to follow before they get fed up and leave.  They need room for creativity. There was an interesting crowd exchange on the role of teams vs. individual coding. The straw poll of the crowd seemed to indicate many were “lone wolves” Topics moved on to the “business” of apps. One or two were making money from app stores, but the general vibe in the room was they were isolated cases. John was open that they were not, but app stores have represented a great leveller, providing visibility to companies and individuals that had been previously been locked out of the market Caroline mentioned they now had 98 app stores in the WIP Jam App Store directory, and the consensus was it will keep growing, at least for the time being. The biggest eye opener for me from the session was the absolute importance of the star rating system within the stores. An Android developer in the audience mentioned that if one of his apps slips below 3 stars he de-lists them, despite pointing out himself, that kids & competitors abuse the system by giving a 1 star rating, which obviously brings down the average. It seems astonishing to me that developers would gamble their ideas and business potential on such an arbitrary measure, but I guess that is a symptom of the current system. Later I asked a question related to this point. I asked if with the maturing apps ecosystem, and vast choice facing consumers, are developers ditching the “launch and see if it sticks” approach, in favour of a user testing led approach. Ben confirmed that they do take the time to release alpha and beta versions of their apps, and use the “technical community” to help refine them. He also described how they take the time to contact and work with ever person that leaves a negative rating or comment (1 x support resource, 4 hours a day) Whilst great advice, it did feel a little like closing the door after the horse has bolted. Why wait for a negative interaction before talking to “real” users? I’m a big believer that developers can really make a difference if they beta test with “real” potential customers, rather than peers or friends ahead of launch. This will help iron out bugs that could lead to those dreaded one star ratings. Also it means you can build a loyal fan base before even entering an app store, so when you are ready to publish you have a bunch of people primed to give you glowing reviews. <plug> With O2 Litmus we pioneered the concept of match making developers with our customers to collaborate and beta test apps to avoid just this situation. We have over 8,000 customers sitting there as a free resource for developers to use. Clearly at the moment we don’t seem to be cutting through with the message, so that’s my homework from today – to figure this out some more. Any suggestions – please shout! </plug> The topic of marketing apps also came up. Ben again came up with some insightful stuff. Reaching out to tech blogs to promote your apps, maintaining momentum is key – planning a monthly update, and as discussed investing in good customer support. All in all, a great session. Key personal take out’s
  • How can we better promote that our customers are willing to help developers test their apps
  • How can we help with the marketing challenges

The Business of API's - Write Up

On Friday I swung by The Business of API's Conference at The Guardian's offices near King Cross station in London. Unfortunately some fires were burning back at the office which mean't that I couldn't stay for the entire event, however I caught the first three speakers and Q&A so here are my notes / thoughts from the first half of the afternoon... First up was Oren Michels, CEO of the event organisers Mashery. Oren took the crowd of about 40 through a whistle stop tour of "A complete history of API's (abridged)". Oren initially spent some time exploring the conceptual business concepts behind API's like opening up your company, and embracing collaborative working with partners.
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The first case study was a delve back into business history, looking at US retailer Sears, and how they embraced an expansion opportunity by partnering with logistic's companies & manufacturers to launch their mail order catalogue business. Moving into the pure play online world, eBay was singled out as an early pioneer in the field. Very early on the management team realised they were great at handling transactions, had developed a trust system based on ratings and feedback, but they were lousy at starting and running the auctions. They began to increasingly expose their internal building blocks to allow 3rd parties to offer a variety of complementary products to assist with the creation and management of eBay auctions. This ecosystem grew organically, until eBay's officially began developer marketing in 2004. The next important  innovation, after the exposure of previously hidden internal capabilities, was taking one of these capabilities and mixing it together with a capability from another company to create a new service, giving birth to the "mash-up". An early example of an API mash-up was 2005's housingmaps.com. The creator, Paul Rademacher, took real estate data from craigslist and combined it with Google Maps to plot properties for sale on a map. Rademacher achieved this before Google had actually exposed an official mapping API by reverse engineering their code, ultimately earning him a job at Google! Oren than described the common components or layers of an application:
  1. Data (e.g. photo's, video, user information)
  2. Logic (The things that happen & how the data is processed e.g. searching, buying, adding)
  3. Presentation (The user interface e.g. the web site or mobile app)
By adding an API layer your company can expose the data layer to encourage 3rd party innovation and mash-up's. Oren made the point that a great app doesn't have to do everything. It should be simple and focused, "granting wishes". A great example of this keep it simple mantra is The Guardian's Eye Witness app, where The Guardian can "re-use" existing photo content to create a compelling new service offer. Oren closed by touching on the cookery analogy of API's. Historically companies have wanted to create new products behind locked doors. Now companies should think about API's as ingredients. No longer do companies have to control the end to end creation process (the ingredients, recipe, creation, and the baking). Just put your ingredients out there and see what other people can create with them. I've used this analogy a numbers of times inside my company. Once you can get your head around the concept, it is immemesily liberating for anyone that has been in charge of product development inside a large organisation. The internal pressures of resource & capex scarcity, risk aversion, process complexity, time to market, and the weight of creative expectation suddenly disappear. Like the example of the individual app, the focus for modern Corporate product development should be to analyse the core capabilities of your company and expose them in a secure and scalable way. If you can wrap those capabilities in an attractive business model, then you can tap into the hundreds of thousands of developers out there who will invent imagative ways to utilise and monitise those capabilities for you. A recent blog post by Alan Quayle notes that Google and Facebook now have 5 billion API calls a day. Twitter has 3 billion calls a day, which amounts to 75% of its traffic. The second speaker was Sam Lowe from Capgemini. Sam spoke about the use of API's in their Enterprise customers, naming it "3rd generation eBusiness" Sam set the context for enterprises - they are "under siege". They are having to figure out how they adapt to changing customer behaviour (e.g. Facebook), disruptive innovation (internet models rather than enterprise IT models), and new business opportunities (pure play online). The Enterprise generations of eBusiness were defined by Sam as: 1.0 - Initially getting online to match early pure play etailers like Amazon & eBay. 2.0 - Developing the online channel for transactions, customer self care, plus seamless multi channel experiences like online order & reserve with physical in store order collection 3.0 - Opening up and becoming inter-dependant on other organisations. Taking your services to where customers already are. In this 3.0 phase web sites can now automatically interact with each other to create new service bundles or offers in real time. Sam cited Dell's Idea Storm as an example of an Enterprise opening up both technically and philosophically to improve it's products and services, along side Apple's Developer Community, and O2 Uk's GiffGaff virtual mobile network brand where the GiffGaff community is incentivised via service credits to provide customer support to each other. API's represent a more cost effective and flexible solution vs. traditional IT integration, and can be used as a foundation to create ecosystems or platforms to generate new business opportunities that didn't previously exist in the old world closed model. These platforms allow other (external) people to create services that the Enterprise would have either never thought of, or backed. The API model seems to be well established; Programmable Web's API directory now lists nearly 2,200 individual API's, including API's from companies you may not expect to be playing in this space like Tesco. Expanding your companies relationships and connections via API's and mash-up's creates new business opportunity, as per Metcalfe's Law. [caption id="" align="alignleft" width="200" caption="Metcalf's Law - Network Effect. Image from Wikipedia.org"]
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[/caption] Sam touched on the challenges facing Enterprises looking to invest in creating API's, including how to pay, security, operational support, and dependencies on others. It would have been nice to get some deeper insight into the business case challenges. By definition, because your organisation is dependant on the creativity of others to develop new services by using your API, it is almost impossible to predict the return on investment for an API. It can become a science vs. religion debate. To help the business case debate the "eating your own dog food" or the more polite "drinking your own champagne" argument can be made. As well as exposing these API's for external developers, many companies also use the same API's to power their own internal services. This delivers a much more efficient and flexible reuse approach vs. traditional stove piped Enterprise IT delivery projects. During the Q&A session the GiffGaff case study was mentioned again, leading to a discussion on how "power users" are willing to offer their personal time to create and maintain online communities based around the products and brands they love. The conference moderator, Quentin Hardy, National Editor, Forbes threw in an interesting stat; In the USA 40,000 people spend 4 hours a week posting on company forums. The final speaker I caught was Emer Coleman from the Greater London Authority. Emer acts as an advocate for the London Datastore which is focused on opening up various public sector data in the London area via API's. Examples of the data in action are the live tube train map on TFL and a feed for the new London cycle hire service is next on the list. Other examples were Oyster card outlets, council tax bands, and they are looking into crime maps but of course that kind of data presents a number of privacy and social issues. Emer gave some interesting insights into the speed of development using their API's, with apps now being created in "an afternoon" vs. the traditional public sector procurement process which is measured in months & years. I'm sure many of us in the private sector can relate to that as well! Also interesting was the challenge around working with more sensitive data, like crime statistics. Perhaps an unforeseen benefit of opening up access to the data via API's, was that teenagers who would never visit an official government website, are now exposed and interacting with the same government data via brands they are willing to associate with. With heavy public sector spending cuts looming, I asked the question if this would lead to a national roll out, but there didn't seem to be a strategic plan. Surely allowing 3rd party developers to create compelling public services from this data would allow the government to innovate and improve services for citizens at the fraction of the cost....? Anyone interested in learning more about API's has to watch this video:

Darwin's Finches, 20th Century Business, and APIs: Evolve your Business Model from Apigee on Vimeo.

Developer Economics 2010

Following hot on the heels of the new blog launch last week, I'm delighted to announce that another project we have been beavering away on since last year goes live today; Developer Economics 2010 investigates the  migration of developer mindshare that is taking place in mobile software today and the drivers behind it. The project was really challenging to pull together with our friends at Vision Mobile, so we hope you agree with our view that this is a ground breaking piece of developer research that plugs a real gap in the market. Let us know what you think. If you want to discuss on Twitter or help us promote the report (pretty please!) then use hash tag #devecon Enjoy!

Why Mobile Operators have a crucial role to play in the second wave of “smart” apps

The following post is a reproduction of my guest blog on VisionMobile.com - please see here for the original. The noise level around Apps and App Stores has reached saturation point. Every day a new launch, a new report, or a new statistic hits the newswires. We have passed the point where there are now more people accessing the internet via a mobile device than via a PC, overall revenue from mobile apps (including ads, payments, and in-app transactions) is expected to grow to $17.5 billion in 2012 from $4.1 billion today, the iTunes store has delivered more than 3 billion downloads, an App is downloaded every 22 seconds from Nokia’s Ovi store, there are more than 30,000 Apps available in the Android store...you get the idea... There can be no doubt that the explosion of interest around the App ecosystem brought home just how important mobile will be as a future content delivery channel, typified by the increasing number of App’s being produced by leading brands. No digital marketer worth their salt would now neglect having an app story in their digital marketing plan, even if in all honesty some are not quite sure why! However, make no mistake that we are still firmly in the realms of a version 1.0 ecosystem. The App retail delivery platforms are still very basic; in fact they have not yet significantly evolved in terms of features and capabilities from the content delivery platforms that were offering mobile games, wallpapers and ringtones at the beginning of the decade. The Apps themselves are clearly “dumb”. What do I mean by “dumb?” The vast majority of today’s App’s sit on the customer’s handset and have no understanding, or appreciation of its context or the person using it. Yes, increasing numbers of Apps are using location to introduce geographic context, but that is hardly pushing the boundaries of the art of the possible. To take the App ecosystem to version 2.0, Apps have to become “smart”. I believe this is where Mobile Operators finally have a key role to play in the progression of the App ecosystem. Of course this role is not a divine right. The Mobile Operators need to go through considerable change in order to be able to contribute effectively. That change is both technological: opening up “smart enablers” to allow developers to easily consume these capabilities, and secondly: culturally – to embrace the independent developer community and relax their traditional command and control philosophy for mutual gain. So what does a “smart app” look like? Well consider today’s customer experience. You run an app and it is a one size fits all experience i.e. the app behaves exactly the same way for every one of its users, regardless of who they are, and how they are using it. Imagine a “smart” app that could customise the user experience based on intelligent, real time, information delivered from the Mobile Operator. Examples of a Mobile Operators unique enhancements to the customer experience could include:
  • On the fly customisation of the App UI based on a detailed understanding of the device currently being used. Remember that increasing numbers of customers are SIM swapping. How do you know that a customer using your service on a Monday via an iPhone is now using your service on a Tuesday using the same SIM in a 3G dongle connected to a Netbook?
  • On the fly customisation of content richness based on knowledge of the users  current connection speed (e.g. 2.5g, 3G, WiFi). For example trying to force rich video content to a customer on a slower 2.5G data connection will probably deliver such a poor customer experience they will never use your app again. If you know in real time their connection speed, you can deliver the most appropriate experience.
  • Personalisation of content and configuration of your App UI based on user demographics (gender, age, location, social economic profile, etc)
  • Targeting & profiling of the audience based on segmentation information e.g. travel profile (stationary, commuter, jet-setter), spend segment (>€100 per month, €50-100 per month, €30-50, etc.
  • Micro billing to the customer’s mobile bill or debits from their pre pay balance at VISA like transactions rates.
  • In App interactivity via messaging or calling
  • Up selling the customer from a basic service to a premium guaranteed service (for example low ping rate for multiplayer gaming apps).
  • Then for the owner of the App, post usage analytics providing data like who, where, how long their users are consuming their services, and other customers of the Mobile Operator that match their current users profile, who could be targeted by a marketing campaign.
Examples of the enablers that Mobile Operators could deploy include; quality of service, billing, handset information, customer analytics, network traffic analytics, messaging, call management, location, age verification, tariff information. The list can go on and on, and in fact in our own planning sessions we have identified over 50 potential enablers. This is a more intelligent way of developing not only the App, but also the business opportunity. Via the Network Operators turning their network infrastructure and assets into a plug and play platform, Mobile Operators become vital in the creation process of the second wave of 'intelligent' apps that can deliver far richer experiences for users which will drive adoption, longevity, and profitability. Evangelisation and education on the benefits of creating “smart” Apps is crucial – this won’t just happen by itself. We are at the start of the process, and many companies are only now trying to get to grips with their App 1.0 strategy. To ensure Mobile Operators both identify and capitalise on the opportunity to become relevant in the App ecosystem, it is vital they adopt an open and transparent approach. Therefore there cannot be enough effort to bring together the various players in the App ecosystem to share thinking, create strategy and influence product roadmaps, and marketing plans. A great example of this is the Mobile Entertainment Forums Smart Enabler Initiative. I’d strongly recommend you check it out and get involved. Critically the experiences and enablers I have described here are not commercial reality today. Talking and listening to developers will be essential to ensure that the Mobile Operators invest in the right technology enablers and introduce compelling business models to encourage their adoption. Of course enablers are just one piece of a complex App ecosystem. There are many other challenges that hinder unlocking the full commercial value of the market place, not least the fragmentation and choices available to developers at the handset Operating System level. However, our approach is the same: dialogue and insight. That is exactly why O2 Litmus has partnered with Vision Mobile to undertake the largest developer research to date. We're encouraging all mobile developers to participate, and we look forward to sharing the results with you all. Have your say at visionmobile.com/developers. I’d welcome your thoughts on both this piece and some key questions it poses:
  • Have you used a Mobile Operator enabler? What was the experience like?
  • What enablers do you need to make your App “smart”?
  • How can we effectively spread this message?

Making sense of a fragmented world; Developer Economics 2010 and Beyond

Since I first starting working on the O2 Litmus concept back in early 2008, I have always tried to ensure our strategy and plans have been under pinned by a clear understanding of both developer needs, and the requirements of O2's customers. To date we have conducted four major pieces of developer & customer research in 2008 and then refreshing in 2009. Continuing in this tradition, I'm pleased to announce we are sponsoring a new, ambitious research project by VisionMobile that will benchmark the developer experience across all 8 major platforms (iPhone, Android, Symbian, Java ME, RIM, Windows Mobile, Flash Lite or mobile web). I'd encourage all mobile developers to participate and help set the standards for the future of mobile software development.
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Prizes All participants will be included in a draw for 21 great prizes:  - 1 participant wins €500 in Amazon Vouchers  - 20 participants win a glossy A1 wallchart of the Mobile Industry Atlas, the definitive who's who of the mobile ecosystem. + chance to win 1 free MWC pass: Participants who register by Friday 5th February will automatically be entered into a prize draw for a complimentary entry pass to Mobile World Congress 2010 in Barcelona (a value of €599), supplied by us. Participate VisionMobile is inviting mobile software developers to one-on-one phone interviews for an opportunity to have your say on the future of mobile platforms. Register today at visionmobile.com/developers. Results will be published in Q2 2010. Are you are a mobile application developer? Love or hate your mobile OS? Have your SAY!
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